Berkshire Hathaway agreed to acquire Taylor Morrison (TMHC) for $72.50/share in cash (~$6.8B), a significant premium to the current ~$58.50 price, marking Greg Abel's first major deal as Berkshire CEO. The ~24% spread to the announced deal price creates a clean merger-arb setup in TMHC, though deal-close timeline and regulatory risk set the guardrails.
Long TMHC to close the ~$14 merger-arb gap to the $72.50 Berkshire cash takeout; consensus is 10B/3SB vs.
Deal break or extended DOJ/FTC antitrust review dragging timeline well past 6 months; a broader homebuilder sector selloff could also pressure the arb if the deal is re-priced or if market-out clauses are triggered.
CoverageSource: CNBC · Published here MON, JUN 1 · 6:18 AM ET · the only report in this recordHow this is decided →
Long TMHC to close the ~$14 merger-arb gap to the $72.50 Berkshire cash takeout; consensus is 10B/3SB vs. only 2S, making this a hard-to-fade arb with a cash acquirer.
Why it mattersBerkshire's $72.50 all-cash bid for TMHC represents a ~24% premium to the current ~$58.50 price. Cash deals with a creditworthy acquirer (Berkshire) carry minimal financing risk, and the strong analyst consensus (10 Buy/3 Strong Buy vs. 2 Sell) signals the buy-side already viewed TMHC as undervalued pre-deal. The spread exists primarily due to time-value and regulatory uncertainty, not deal-break risk — Berkshire's pristine balance sheet and track record of clean closes argue for a tight stop and patient hold to $72.50.
The read above, as written. kept as written · closes shown from JUN 1 on
Deal close, likely 3-6 months. Follow to be told when one lands.
Price context does not establish that the story caused the move.
Kept as written · your side, if you take one, is graded privately against licensed closes after 10 trading days · nothing here is advice · How the Wire is made →