Nike stock has cratered to its lowest level in over 11 years
Nike shares have fallen to their lowest level in over 11 years as FY2025 revenue declined 9.8% YoY to $46.3B, with net margins compressed to just 7.0%. The multi-year low raises the question of whether the stock is bottoming into a turnaround setup or still in the early innings of a structural decline.
What happened
Nike shares have fallen to their lowest level in over 11 years as FY2025 revenue declined 9.8% YoY to $46.3B, with net margins compressed to just 7.0%.
The read · Jun 29
NKE is at an 11-year price low after a -9.8% revenue decline — the question is whether the selloff has overshot into value territory or whether deteriorating fundamentals still have further to reprice.
Wrong if
A long position gets hurt if the next quarterly print shows continued revenue deceleration or further margin compression, confirming no inflection. A short faces risk of a violent mean-reversion rally if any stabilization data or activist interest emerges at these historically depressed prices.
CoverageSource: Yahoo Finance · Published here MON, JUN 29 · 10:06 AM ET · the only report in this recordHow this is decided →
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The story1 min read
Nike stock has cratered to an 11-year low, a level that frames the magnitude of the brand's deterioration since its post-pandemic peak. FY2025 revenue came in at $46.3B, down 9.8% year-over-year, while diluted EPS stands at $2.16 — a stark contrast to the growth trajectory investors priced in during the prior decade. Gross margins held at 42.7%, but net margins compressed to just 7.0%, signaling that cost pressures and promotional activity are eating into profitability even as the top line shrinks.
The revenue decline reflects a confluence of headwinds: a pullback in direct-to-consumer momentum, share losses to competitors like On Running and Hoka, and softness in key markets including China and North America. New CEO Elliott Hill, who returned to Nike in late 2024, has outlined a 'back to sport' reset, but restructuring timelines are long and the brand recalibration has yet to show in the numbers.
The bull case rests on the depth of the selloff itself — at an 11-year price low, the stock may already price in significant bad news, and any stabilization in revenue trends or margin recovery could attract value-oriented and activist interest. Historically, Nike has proven durable through cycles, and its global distribution footprint and brand equity remain intact.
The bear case is equally concrete: a nearly 10% top-line decline with no clear inflection point in sight, margin compression, and intensifying competitive pressure from nimbler brands suggests the stock may not yet reflect trough earnings. If the turnaround under Hill takes longer than the market expects, multiple compression could continue even from depressed levels.
The key catalyst to watch is the next quarterly print — any sequential improvement in revenue trends or gross margin guidance will be the first real evidence that the reset is working. Until then, the risk/reward remains genuinely two-sided.
The read, in fullWhy it matters
Revenue declined 9.8% YoY to $46.3B with net margins at just 7.0% and EPS of $2.16 — the fundamentals are weak, but the stock is at an 11-year low which may already embed significant bad news. Without a clear sequential inflection in revenue or margin data, the directional case is too uncertain to ground a high-conviction trade. The turnaround timeline under new CEO Hill is unknown.
The arc● Open · no developments yet
· Published
The read above, as written. kept as written · closes shown from JUN 29 on
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1-3 months, into next earnings print. Follow to be told when one lands.
Since this story · named here, equal weight · 1D EOD-7.4%
JUN 29 · first close after publicationSEP 4
Price context does not establish that the story caused the move.
▲ The case it holds
At an 11-year price low with gross margins still holding at 42.7%, the stock may already price in the worst of the reset cycle — any sequential revenue stabilization or margin recovery under Hill's restructuring could trigger a sharp re-rating of a brand with global-scale distribution and proven long-term equity.
▼ The case it breaks
With top-line revenue down nearly 10% YoY, net margins compressed to 7.0%, and structurally nimbler competitors like On Running and Hoka continuing to take share, there is no clear earnings trough yet visible, meaning the multiple could compress further even from a multi-decade price low.
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