SpaceX inks compute deal with Reflection AI, an open source AI lab
SpaceX has signed a $150M/month compute deal with Reflection AI, giving the startup access to Nvidia GB300 chips at SpaceX's new Colossus 2 data center near Memphis starting July 2026. The deal validates the surging demand for next-gen AI compute and reinforces NVDA's GB300 product cycle, while SpaceX (private) captures the infrastructure revenue directly.
What happened
SpaceX has signed a $150M/month compute deal with Reflection AI, giving the startup access to Nvidia GB300 chips at SpaceX's new Colossus 2 data center near Memphis starting July 2026.
The read · Jun 22
With a $1.8B/year committed GB300 deal in place through 2029, the question for NVDA is whether this latest demand signal is already priced into a stock running 65% revenue growth and 71% gross margins, or whether the GB300 cycle still has room to surprise consensus.
Wrong if
NVDA already trades at a premium multiple with Strong Buy consensus widely held — much of the GB300 cycle may be priced in, and any supply-chain delay, export restriction escalation, or macro-driven capex pullback from AI labs could compress the multiple sharply.
CoverageSource: TechCrunch · Published here MON, JUN 22 · 12:51 PM ET · the only report in this recordHow this is decided →
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The story1 min read
Reflection AI, an open-source AI lab, will pay SpaceX roughly $1.8 billion annually for dedicated access to Nvidia's GB300 NVL-class hardware at Colossus 2 — a facility near Memphis that sits alongside Tesla's existing Colossus cluster. The deal runs from July 1, 2026 through 2029, representing a multi-year committed revenue stream for SpaceX's compute business and a significant vote of confidence in GB300 supply availability at scale.
For NVDA investors, the signal is clear: hyperscalers and now well-funded AI labs are signing long-term, large-dollar commitments around the GB300 generation specifically, extending the capex supercycle narrative into 2027–2029. The key question is whether NVDA's supply chain can meet this wave of demand without margin pressure, and whether SPCE (Virgin Galactic — unrelated to SpaceX) sees any sympathy noise that fades quickly. SpaceX remains private, so the primary tradeable angle centers on NVDA as the hardware supplier anchored in the deal.
The read, in fullWhy it matters
NVDA's FY2026 revenue of $215.9B grew 65.5% YoY with 71.1% gross margins, and this deal confirms GB300 demand is being contracted at scale well into 2029 — validating the next product cycle before it fully ships. Long-term compute commitments of this size ($1.8B/year) from well-funded AI labs are exactly the demand signal that underpins NVDA's forward revenue visibility, which the market will likely re-rate into the August earnings print.
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· Published
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Next · what would move this
A dated catalyst on AUG 20 · 4-8 weeks, into next earnings print. Follow to be told when one lands.
▲ The case it holds
Committed $1.8B/year GB300 contracts through 2029 from a single AI lab demonstrate that next-cycle demand is being locked in ahead of supply, a dynamic that historically precedes upward revisions to NVDA's forward ASP and data center revenue estimates.
▼ The case it breaks
NVDA's 65% YoY revenue growth and 71% gross margins are already reflected in a consensus that is overwhelmingly bullish, meaning this deal confirms rather than surprises the thesis and may not move the needle on a stock that requires accelerating beats to sustain its premium valuation.
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