US Housing Starts Plummet In July, Near COVID Lows
US housing starts plunged 12.4% month over month in July, leaving activity near post-COVID lows, while building permits rose 5.0% and beat expectations. The split points to a sharply weaker current construction pulse but a less negative forward pipeline, keeping the signal mixed for housing-sensitive assets.
What happened
US housing starts plunged 12.4% month over month in July, leaving activity near post-COVID lows, while building permits rose 5.0% and beat expectations.
The read · Aug 18
The housing data cuts both ways: July’s 12.4% starts collapse pressures the near-term construction cycle, but the 5.0% permits rebound limits the downside signal for housing-sensitive assets.
Wrong if
A further decline in permits or another weak starts report would turn the mixed signal decisively negative; a rapid rebound in starts would invalidate the near-term weakness read.
CoverageSource: ZeroHedge · Published here TUE, AUG 18 · 11:58 AM ET · 2 outlets in this record · latest listed: ZeroHedge at 11:58 AM ETHow this is decided →
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The story1 min read
Seasonally adjusted annualized housing starts fell 12.4% month over month in July, marking the third major monthly decline in four months and bringing the measure back near post-COVID lows. The drop followed a June surge driven by a rebound in multifamily units, but it was substantially larger than the 5.9% decline expected.
Preliminary building permits moved in the opposite direction, rising 5.0% month over month after two consecutive monthly declines and exceeding the 0.6% increase expected. Permits are described as holding near a four-year level, providing a more forward-looking counterpoint to the weakness in completed starts.
The key follow-through is whether permits translate into starts in coming months or instead signal a widening gap between planned and actual construction. With no single company or equity named and no ticker-specific enrichment available, the release is primarily a macro read rather than a clean single-name setup.
The read, in fullWhy it matters
The immediate construction impulse is materially weaker, but the permits rebound argues against treating July as a clean collapse in future activity. The divergence shifts the trade toward monitoring the starts-permits conversion rather than making a single-direction call on housing exposure.
Next 1-3 housing reports. Follow to be told when one lands.
▲ The case it holds
The strongest constructive case is that building permits rose 5.0% month over month after two declines, signaling that the forward pipeline may stabilize despite July’s weak starts.
▼ The case it breaks
The bear case is stronger for the current quarter because starts plunged 12.4% month over month, the third major monthly drop in four months, and are near post-COVID lows.
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STOCK PHOTO · JAKUB PABIS