Oil falls to lowest since start of Iran war after ceasefire deal signed

Crude oil has fallen sharply to its lowest price since the Iran war began, as a ceasefire agreement removes the geopolitical risk premium that had been embedded in energy markets. The move unwinds a meaningful portion of the war-driven rally, reflecting traders rapidly re-pricing the tail risk of supply disruption from the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian export facilities.

The key question now is how deep the unwind goes: if OPEC+ responds with supply cuts to defend a price floor, the downside may be limited, but if the ceasefire holds and macro demand softness persists, energy equities face additional multiple compression. Watch for OPEC+ emergency signaling, positioning data, and whether refinery crack spreads confirm demand absorption at lower crude levels.