According to the Financial Times, Nvidia chips that are banned or restricted for export to China are now trading at more than double their official list prices on Chinese black and grey markets. The report does not specify a single chip model but covers the broader category of restricted Nvidia hardware — most likely H-series and A-series accelerators — suggesting demand has outpaced any enforcement capacity.

The story directly implicates Nvidia (NVDA), which reported $215.9B in revenue for FY2026 (ending Jan 25), up 65.5% YoY, with a 71.1% gross margin and $4.90 diluted EPS — numbers that already embed a China export-control headwind. The FT report underscores that Chinese buyers are willing to pay extraordinary premiums to obtain Nvidia silicon regardless of controls.

The second-order tension is dual-edged. On one hand, a thriving black market signals that Nvidia's product moat is so deep that no domestic Chinese alternative (Huawei Ascend, Cambricon) can substitute — a structural bull point for Nvidia's long-run pricing power. On the other hand, the visibility of this black-market premium is likely to draw fresh Congressional and BIS scrutiny, raising the probability of tighter enforcement, third-country transshipment rules, or expanded entity-list additions that could further constrain Nvidia's addressable market.

Watch for any follow-on regulatory response from BIS or the Commerce Department, and whether Nvidia's upcoming guidance adjusts China-related revenue assumptions. The grey-market premium could also reignite debate over whether a China-specific compliant chip (like the now-banned H20) makes geopolitical sense for the next product cycle.