Crude oil retreated to $80/barrel following a reported U.S.-Iran framework agreement, the most significant diplomatic development in the region in years. U.S. retail gas prices fell below $4/gallon on a national average basis per GasBuddy, suggesting the market is already pricing in the prospect of Iranian barrels returning to global supply.

If the framework holds and sanctions relief follows, Iran could add 1-2 mb/d of incremental supply, which would put sustained downward pressure on WTI and Brent prices, squeezing producer margins and refinery crack spreads. Key things to watch: whether the framework converts into a formal deal, OPEC+ response to the supply overhang threat, and how quickly Iranian export capacity can be restored.