Intel’s stock jumps 11% — even as analysts say new Apple chip deal might start small

Intel shares jumped 11% after reports emerged of a potential chip manufacturing deal with Apple, framed by one analyst as evidence that Intel 'is steadily expanding its domestic capacity and converting political and strategic tailwinds into concrete foundry wins.' The Apple relationship would be strategically significant given Apple's scale, but analysts widely flagged that any initial deal is likely to be modest in scope, with meaningful revenue still years away. Intel's own fundamentals remain stretched — FY2025 revenue was essentially flat at $52.9B (-0.5% YoY), gross margin sits at 34.8%, and diluted EPS is negative at -$0.06, leaving the stock pricing in a recovery that has not yet materialized in the numbers.

The 11% single-day move compresses the margin of safety for new entrants betting on foundry momentum. What to watch: whether Apple publicly confirms any arrangement, the timeline and wafer volumes attached to any deal, and whether Intel's next earnings print shows foundry segment revenue inflecting. A deal that stays small or gets delayed would expose the stock to a sharp reversion given the valuation stretch implied by near-zero earnings.