Crude oil prices dropped sharply following reports of a US-Iran peace agreement, a development that would signal potential removal of sanctions and a return of Iranian crude to global markets. Iran holds significant spare capacity — estimates suggest 1-1.5 mb/d of incremental supply could be unlocked relatively quickly — and the market is repricing that supply risk in real time.

The key second-order question is how durable this move is: past US-Iran diplomacy has stalled repeatedly, and any diplomatic reversal would likely snap oil prices back. Watch for confirmation on the deal's scope and timeline, reaction from OPEC+ (which may offset with cuts), and the broader impact on energy equities, upstream E&P names, and petrocurrency pairs like CAD and NOK.