Geopolitics
Oil is falling more than 1% on reports of a possible US-Iran ceasefire deal, which would signal easing Middle East supply-risk premium. If a deal progresses, Iranian barrels could re-enter the market, adding further downward pressure on crude benchmarks and pressuring energy equities.
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Angle
↓ SHORT-4% target+3% stop1-2 weeks or until deal status clarifies
Short XLE / energy majors on fading Iran risk premium — a credible US-Iran deal unwinds the geopolitical bid and re-opens Iranian supply, pressuring crude and E&P names.