Geopolitics
Reports of progress on a US-Iran nuclear deal are sending oil prices sharply lower as markets price in a potential return of Iranian crude supply. Equity markets are rallying on reduced geopolitical risk premium, creating a divergent macro setup where energy shorts and broad-market longs compete for attention.
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Angle
↓ SHORT-6% target+4% stop2-4 weeks
Short XLE into Iran deal progress — Iranian supply re-entry structurally pressures E&P margins and the ETF has no hedge against a sustained oil drawdown.