The US and Iran have reportedly reached an agreement that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of global oil supply transits. Oil prices have dropped sharply on the news while equity markets are rallying, reflecting the market's knee-jerk read: reduced supply-disruption risk and a potential easing of sanctions pressure on Iranian crude exports.

The second-order tension is whether this deal holds — prior Iran agreements have unraveled, and any sign of backsliding would reverse the oil move fast. Watch for confirmation from Iranian officials, IAEA involvement, and how quickly Iranian barrels re-enter the market, which would pressure OPEC+ cohesion and weigh on energy sector earnings.