The latest Fed dot plot reveals that close to half of FOMC voting members expect at least one additional rate increase this year, a notable hawkish tilt from prior projections. This is a signal that the 'higher for longer' narrative is not dead — it may be evolving into 'higher, and possibly higher still' — challenging the consensus rate-cut timeline that many risk assets have been pricing in.

The immediate setup is a repricing risk in duration: TLT and rate-sensitive sectors (utilities, REITs, high-multiple growth) face headwinds if the terminal rate gets revised upward. Watch the 2-year Treasury yield as the cleanest real-time read on how aggressively markets absorb this dot plot shift, and monitor Fed speakers in the days ahead for any softening or reinforcement of the hawkish lean.