Fed 'dot plot': Almost half of FOMC members project at least one interest rate hike this year

The latest Fed dot plot reveals that close to half of FOMC voting members expect at least one additional rate increase this year, a notable hawkish tilt from prior projections. This is a signal that the 'higher for longer' narrative is not dead — it may be evolving into 'higher, and possibly higher still' — challenging the consensus rate-cut timeline that many risk assets have been pricing in.

The immediate setup is a repricing risk in duration: TLT and rate-sensitive sectors (utilities, REITs, high-multiple growth) face headwinds if the terminal rate gets revised upward. Watch the 2-year Treasury yield as the cleanest real-time read on how aggressively markets absorb this dot plot shift, and monitor Fed speakers in the days ahead for any softening or reinforcement of the hawkish lean.