Iran and the U.S. have agreed to a preliminary deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil supply transits daily. Oil prices fell on the news as the market priced in a supply-accessibility premium unwinding, while equities broadly surged on reduced macro tail-risk. The deal is described as preliminary, meaning implementation and verification risk remains high.

The second-order setup is a rotation trade: energy producers and tanker names face margin compression from falling crude, while airlines, logistics, and consumer discretionary stocks stand to benefit from lower fuel costs. The key question is whether this deal holds — any breakdown in implementation would sharply reverse these moves, making the durability of the agreement the critical variable to watch over the coming days.