Iran has reportedly shut the Strait of Hormuz again as Trump threatens new military strikes, sending oil prices sharply higher. The closure of a chokepoint carrying roughly 20% of global crude supply creates an immediate supply-shock setup across energy equities and crude futures.
A genuine, enforced multi-day Hormuz disruption would remove ~20M barrels/day of potential transit capacity, a supply shock with no near-term offset that historically drives crude and energy equity outperformance in the days immediately following.
Iran has threatened or announced Hormuz closures multiple times historically without sustained enforcement, meaning the risk premium embedded in the current crude spike could dissolve rapidly if tanker traffic continues uninterrupted or back-channel diplomacy surfaces.