US manufacturing activity at four-year high, supply constraints growing - Reuters
Macro
US manufacturing ISM or equivalent survey has hit a four-year high, signaling a broadening economic expansion, while supply constraints are re-emerging as demand outpaces capacity. Rising input costs and tightening supply chains create a stagflationary undertow that could pressure margins for goods-consuming sectors while boosting pricing power for industrials and commodity producers.
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Angle
↔ PAIR+5% target+3% stop4-6 weeks
Long XLI (industrials ETF) vs short TLT — manufacturing re-acceleration with supply constraints is classically rate-bearish and capex-positive, compressing duration while lifting industrial earnings.