Adobe (ADBE) Price Target Cut as TD Cowen Flags Slowing Spend and Weak AI Credit Demand
1 min readAnalysis by AlgoThesis Editorial Desk
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The story
TD Cowen trimmed its Adobe price target, citing two specific concerns: decelerating enterprise spend across the software stack and disappointing uptake of Adobe's AI credit consumption model — the mechanism through which ADBE expected to monetize Firefly and generative AI features. Adobe reported $23.8B in revenue for FY2025, up 10.5% YoY, with robust gross margins of 89.3%, but net margins of 30% and diluted EPS of $16.70 suggest the Street's premium multiple is priced for reacceleration, not deceleration.
The core tension is whether Adobe's AI credit system is a timing issue (enterprise adoption lag) or a structural miss on the monetization model itself. The next earnings print is the clearest catalyst — watch for management commentary on AI ARR contribution and any revision to credit attach rates. Until then, any multiple compression on slowing AI revenue signals could weigh on a stock that trades at a significant premium to legacy software peers.
The two-sided take
The house read
Two-sidedWrong ifA strong next earnings print showing material AI credit ARR growth or a positive pre-announcement would rapidly close the price-target gap and squeeze any short position.
Published read · research, not advice