Global Supply Shortages Deepen as War Drags On, Risking Jobs and Growth
Geopolitics
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for three months, deepening global supply shortages and threatening jobs and growth — with developing nations absorbing the worst of the shock. Prolonged disruption to one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints signals sustained oil-price support and accelerating supply-chain fragmentation, creating asymmetric setups in energy and shipping.
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Angle
↔ PAIR+8% target-4% stop4-8 weeks or until Strait re-opens
Long energy (XLE/USO) and tanker re-routes (FRO, STNG) while shorting EM broad exposure (EEM) as Hormuz closure drags into month four with no resolution in sight.