The bond market is telling us the free lunch is over - Axios
Macro
Multiple major outlets are converging on the same macro signal: bond markets are pricing in structurally higher yields driven by inflation and fiscal concerns, not just a transient geopolitical risk premium. If yields stay elevated even as near-term risk events fade, rate-sensitive equity sectors and long-duration assets face sustained multiple compression.
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Angle
↓ SHORT-7% target+4% stop4-8 weeks
Short TLT and fade rate-sensitive proxies XLRE/XLU as the multi-outlet bond alarm signals yields are structurally higher, not transitorily high.