Oil prices could surpass $120 per barrel if disruptions in Strait of Hormuz don’t ease, says Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs analysts led by Daan Struyven warned that oil prices could surpass $120 per barrel if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz do not ease. The bank also sees oil averaging about $100 a barrel next year if traffic through the waterway remains affected.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical energy chokepoint, so the forecast raises the potential for a sustained supply-risk premium across crude markets. The headline is most directly relevant to oil prices and energy producers, refiners, and other companies with material exposure to crude costs, although no specific company enrichment is available here.

The bullish case rests on disruption lasting long enough to constrain effective supply and reset forward price expectations. The opposing case is that traffic improves, allowing the geopolitical premium to unwind before prices reach the forecast levels.

The key variable is duration rather than the forecast alone: evidence of normalized shipments would weaken the setup, while continuing impairment would keep the upside scenario in focus. With no ticker-level consensus, valuation, or insider data supplied, the trade case remains a macro view rather than a company-specific signal.