Bitcoin bounced back toward $64,000 over the weekend after Friday's sell-off, tracking a tentative recovery in risk assets as US-Iran ceasefire negotiations formally opened in Switzerland. The recovery looks fragile, however: Iran's reiterated threat to close the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of global oil trade flows — signals that Tehran still holds significant leverage and the deal is far from done.

The key watch for crypto here is whether the geopolitical discount fully reprices out or whether the Hormuz threat escalates into an actual closure, which would hit energy prices, push inflation expectations higher, and likely trigger a risk-off move that pressures BTC back toward the mid-$50,000s. With no enrichment data to tighten positioning, confidence is moderate — this is a macro/geo event-driven setup with a clear binary catalyst but wide outcome variance.