Crude oil fell approximately $4 following reports that the US and Iran have agreed to a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global seaborne oil supply transits. The market had priced in a meaningful geopolitical risk premium over recent weeks amid escalating tensions; a genuine deal removes that premium almost immediately.

The key question now is whether the deal holds and what verification mechanism exists — past US-Iran diplomacy has proven fragile, and any breakdown in implementation could see the risk premium snap back sharply. Watch for OPEC+ reaction and whether producers use the price dip as cover to reassess output targets, as well as how integrated oil majors and tanker names reprice over the next 24-48 hours.