Macro
Iran-linked conflict has pushed a second consecutive inflation reading to its highest level since 2023, prompting central bank officials to signal openness to rate hikes. Higher-for-longer rates combined with a geopolitical risk premium creates a stagflationary setup that pressures rate-sensitive equities and lifts the dollar and energy complex.
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↔ PAIR-5% target+3% stop4-8 weeks, into next CPI print
Short TLT / long DXY as Iran-driven inflation forces the Fed's hand toward hikes, crushing long-duration bonds while lifting the dollar.