The U.S. Supreme Court has rejected CareDx's petition for certiorari in its false-advertising lawsuit against Natera, meaning the lower-court outcome favorable to Natera stands as the final word. The dispute centered on marketing claims Natera made about its Prospera cell-free DNA kidney transplant rejection test, which CareDx alleged were misleading relative to its own competing AlloSure product. The Supreme Court's refusal to hear the appeal closes the litigation chapter without further risk to Natera's commercial practices.
Natera is already on a strong revenue trajectory — $2.3B in FY2025 with 35.9% year-over-year growth — though the company still runs a -9.0% net margin and a -$1.52 diluted EPS, meaning it is not yet profitable. The legal win matters commercially because it frees Natera to continue its current marketing approach for Prospera without court-imposed restrictions, potentially accelerating market share gains in transplant monitoring.
The second-order setup is whether this legal clarity translates into accelerating Prospera adoption at the expense of CareDx's AlloSure, and whether Natera can convert its revenue momentum into profitability faster with a cleared competitive runway. CareDx (CDNA) faces the inverse dynamic — not only did its legal strategy fail, but Natera's marketing claims now carry the implicit endorsement of surviving judicial scrutiny.
What to watch: Natera's next earnings print for Prospera volume data and any guidance revision, and whether CareDx responds with pricing or clinical data to reassert its position. The residual risk for NTRA is that the growth story is already well-known given its strong revenue print, so the legal win may already be partially priced in.