OPEC+ likely to raise July oil output target despite Hormuz disruption, sources say - Reuters
1 min readAnalysis by AlgoThesis Editorial Desk
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The story
OPEC+ is reportedly set to raise its July oil output target even as Strait of Hormuz disruption risk lingers, signaling the cartel is prioritizing market share over price support. This supply-side overhang, layered on top of geopolitical uncertainty suppressing demand visibility, creates a bearish near-term setup for crude and oil-levered equities.
The two-sided take
Angle
↓ SHORT-6% target+3% stop2-4 weeks into July output confirmationJun 1 '25
Short crude via USO and high-beta E&Ps like MRO and OXY as OPEC+ supply hike overwhelms Hormuz fear premium, pressuring WTI toward $70.
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4 of 5 names have verified EOD history. The basket chart is hidden rather than showing illustrative data.Missing: MRO
The house read
Wrong ifA genuine Hormuz closure or military escalation in the Gulf would spike oil sharply and invalidate the short — this trade dies on any credible supply-disruption event, not just noise.
Published read · research, not advice