ASML shares are falling on reports that the U.S. is pushing for tighter restrictions on the Dutch chipmaker's ability to service and supply equipment to Chinese customers. This adds a new layer of export-control risk to ASML's China revenue, which represented roughly 49% of total bookings in recent quarters, creating real uncertainty around near-term guidance.
ASML's installed base in China generates recurring service revenue that is difficult to ban outright without disrupting global chip supply chains, and management has historically guided conservatively on China — leaving room for upside surprises if restrictions prove narrower than feared.
With China representing nearly half of recent bookings and U.S. pressure now extending to servicing of already-shipped DUV tools, the addressable market ASML's consensus estimates are built on could shrink materially if new Dutch export licenses are denied or revoked.