Crude oil has sold off to multi-month lows as a ceasefire deal removes the geopolitical tension that had been pricing in a Middle East supply disruption premium since the Iran conflict escalated. The move reflects traders unwinding the conflict-driven bid, with the speed of the decline suggesting the risk premium was meaningful — likely several dollars per barrel.

The key question now is where the fundamental floor sits: OPEC+ production discipline, global demand trajectory, and the U.S. strategic reserve posture will determine whether this is a clean flush or an overshoot. Watch the next OPEC+ communication and U.S. inventory data prints for clues on whether the selling exhausts itself near current levels.