Crude oil fell close to 3% to its lowest level in three months after reports surfaced that the US and Iran are making progress toward a peace or nuclear framework deal, raising the prospect that Iranian oil exports — currently suppressed by sanctions — could eventually return to global markets. Iran is estimated to have 1-1.5 million barrels per day of production capacity that sanctions have kept off the official market, and any deal that eases restrictions could significantly loosen the supply picture at a time when OPEC+ is already cautiously unwinding voluntary cuts.

The key question is whether the deal actually closes and on what timeline — diplomatic negotiations with Iran have collapsed multiple times before. Watch for IAEA verification milestones, Congressional pushback in the US, and OPEC+ response: the cartel may accelerate or deepen cuts to offset Iranian barrels, which would partially offset downside pressure on prices. Energy equities with high oil-price leverage — upstream E&Ps — face the most direct earnings risk if Brent sustains a move below $75.