China has imposed export controls targeting US rare earth and related firms, escalating trade tensions in critical materials. This move threatens supply chains for defense, EVs, and semiconductors while potentially lifting rare earth mining stocks outside China.
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The AngleGenuinely two-sided
Bull caseUAMY · NEM · LTHM
China's processing dominance means even partial export restrictions create immediate bottlenecks for US defense and EV supply chains, historically triggering multi-week rallies in ex-China rare earth equities like MP Materials.
Bear caseUAMY · NEM · LTHM
Prior Chinese rare earth export control announcements have frequently been followed by carve-outs or diplomatic de-escalation, limiting the actual supply disruption and causing sharp reversals in any initial rally.
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