Fed holds rates steady in first decision under new Chairman Kevin Warsh

The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged in Chair Kevin Warsh's debut decision, but the hawkish pivot in the policy statement and updated economic projections suggests the new leadership is signaling a tighter-for-longer stance. The shift in projections — likely reflecting fewer cuts in the dot plot and upward revisions to inflation forecasts — marks a meaningful tone change from the Waller/Powell era and could reprice rate-cut expectations further out.

The immediate setup is a stronger USD, pressure on rate-sensitive equities (tech, utilities, REITs), and a bid for short-duration over long-duration assets. Key things to watch: follow-on Warsh commentary at the press conference, any revision to terminal rate estimates, and whether crypto and gold — both sensitive to real-rate expectations — reprice lower on the hawkish signal.