Reports from Semafor indicate a US-Iran deal is advancing, which markets are reading as a path toward lifting sanctions and restoring Iranian crude exports — potentially adding 1-2 million barrels per day back to global supply. Energy risk premiums built into oil prices over geopolitical tension are being unwound, pressuring WTI and Brent futures and, by extension, integrated oil majors and E&P names.

The second-order question is how durable this relief is: Iran deal negotiations have collapsed before, and OPEC+ could offset incremental Iranian barrels with supply cuts. Refiners and airlines could be near-term beneficiaries of softer crude, while pure-play upstream names face the most direct margin pressure. Key catalysts to watch include formal deal confirmation, Iranian export timelines, and any OPEC+ emergency meeting response.