Crude oil fell roughly 4% on reports that the US and Iran struck a peace deal that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil supply transits. The move strips out a significant geopolitical risk premium that had been baked into oil prices amid escalating tensions, and is one of the more structurally significant demand-side shocks to the oil complex in recent years if the deal holds.

The key question is whether the deal is durable: US-Iran agreements have historically been fragile, and Iranian sanctions relief could simultaneously unlock additional supply, further pressuring prices. Watch for OPEC+ reaction, implementation timelines, and whether Iran's oil exports are formally unblocked — each of those catalysts could determine whether this 4% move is the beginning of a larger re-rating or a head-fake on a deal that unravels.