President Trump announced Sunday that the U.S. and Iran have reached a peace deal, apparently ending the period of hostilities that had shut the Strait of Hormuz and triggered a global oil shock. Crude prices fell and S&P futures jumped on the news as markets rapidly repriced the geopolitical risk premium embedded since the Strait closure — a move that had driven energy stocks higher and weighed on transportation and consumer discretionary sectors.

The key question is whether the deal holds: Iranian deals have historically faced ratification hurdles, Congressional opposition, and implementation disputes that can reverse the initial relief trade within days. Watches to set include any Congressional pushback, Iranian Supreme Leader confirmation, and whether the physical oil flow through Hormuz resumes quickly — the latter being the true test of whether the risk premium fully unwinds.