A confirmed US-Iran deal to end hostilities is a significant geopolitical inflection point, removing a persistent tail risk that had kept a war premium embedded in crude oil prices and weighed on broader risk appetite. If Iranian oil exports are allowed to ramp — potentially adding 1-2 million barrels per day back to global supply — WTI and Brent face meaningful structural downward pressure beyond the initial relief move.

The second-order setup is a classic risk-on / energy-short bifurcation: equity indices, airlines, shipping, and consumer-exposed names stand to benefit from lower energy costs and reduced geopolitical uncertainty, while integrated oil majors and pure-play E&Ps face both lower prices and potential multiple compression. The key variable to watch is the pace and scope of sanctions relief — if implementation is slow or conditional, the oil supply story may undershoot and the crude selloff could partially reverse.