Crude oil futures fell sharply Thursday and Friday as markets priced in an imminent U.S.-Iran nuclear deal, with Trump posting that the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint for roughly 20% of global seaborne oil — will reopen upon signing. The move front-ran the event, meaning a significant portion of the geopolitical risk premium has already been stripped out of crude before the ink is dry.
The setup now hinges on execution risk: deals can collapse at the last minute, and Iran's production ramp-up timeline matters for the pace of any additional supply pressure. Watch WTI and Brent for a reversal if the deal falls through, or for further downside in energy equities if the deal holds and Iran barrels begin hitting the market in size over coming weeks.