The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged at the latest meeting, but the updated Summary of Economic Projections revealed a notable hawkish shift — a larger cohort of officials now view the next move as a hike rather than a cut. This signals the committee is less convinced inflation is durably under control, and that the 'higher for longer' narrative has gained adherents inside the FOMC itself.

The setup to watch is the re-pricing in long-duration Treasuries, rate-sensitive sectors (utilities, REITs, high-multiple tech), and the dollar. If the bond market takes the dot-plot shift seriously, the 10Y yield could push higher, compressing equity multiples. Key catalysts ahead include the next CPI print and any Fed speaker commentary that either doubles down on or walks back the hawkish tilt.