Geopolitics
The U.S. and Iran have reportedly reached a preliminary peace deal, with Trump stating the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. If confirmed, this removes one of the largest geopolitical risk premiums currently embedded in crude oil prices.
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The AngleGenuinely two-sided
Bull caseUSO · XLE · XOM · CVX · OXY
If the deal includes Iranian sanctions relief and genuine Hormuz access, crude could sell off 5-8% as supply-disruption premium unwinds and incremental Iranian barrels re-enter the market, hitting energy equities broadly.
Bear caseUSO · XLE · XOM · CVX · OXY
Preliminary deals with Iran have historically failed to hold — if details are thin or Congress blocks sanctions relief, energy equities could bounce back quickly, and any crude selloff could be shallow and short-lived.
Both sides — weigh them yourself