Oil prices tumble 20% in May — the biggest monthly drop since 2020. Here’s what’s next.
Energy
Crude oil posted its steepest monthly decline since 2020, falling over 20% in May amid optimism around a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal that could return significant Iranian barrels to global markets. If a deal materializes, the structural supply overhang could pressure upstream E&P names for weeks; if talks collapse, the reversal trade is violent.
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Angle
↓ SHORT-8% target+5% stop2-4 weeks, or until Iran deal status clarifies
Stay short high-beta E&Ps via XOP into any Iran deal confirmation — supply shock thesis isn't priced out yet.