Crude oil is selling off on headlines suggesting a US-Iran agreement is imminent, which would remove the threat of supply disruption and more importantly open the door to Iranian barrels — potentially 1-2 mb/d — returning to market. Iran has historically been a significant OPEC producer, and sanctions relief would meaningfully loosen an already softening supply-demand balance. The move is being treated as a supply-positive, demand-neutral shock by the market.

The key watch items are whether a formal deal is actually signed, its verification timeline, and whether OPEC+ responds defensively with cuts to absorb Iranian supply. Energy equities and oil-leveraged names face a headwind if prices stay suppressed, but any breakdown in negotiations could snap prices — and those names — sharply higher. No ticker enrichment is available, limiting precision on individual names.