The US has raised concerns with ASML about potential Chinese access to its most advanced chip-making tools, per Bloomberg. This reignites export-restriction risk for ASML and the broader semiconductor supply chain, with further licensing restrictions or revocation a credible next step.
ASML's EUV systems are already fully banned from China, meaning the incremental restriction surface on its highest-value tools is limited, and consensus expects China revenue to fade naturally over 2025-2026 — any new rules may simply accelerate a decline already baked into long-term models.
Advanced DUV shipments to China remain a multi-billion-dollar revenue stream that US officials could curtail via license revocation or new rules, and a formal restriction announcement would force a significant downward revision to near-term ASML earnings estimates with no replacement demand in sight.