Michael Burry ‘Finally’ Shorts Tesla Ahead Of Q2 Deliveries — Gary Black Sees A Beat But Still Won’t Own The Stock
Michael Burry has disclosed a short position in Tesla ahead of Q2 delivery data, while analyst Gary Black — a longtime Tesla bull — expects a delivery beat but still refuses to own the stock. The setup pits a high-profile short against cautious fundamental skeptics on both sides of the trade, with Q2 deliveries acting as the near-term catalyst.
What happened
Michael Burry has disclosed a short position in Tesla ahead of Q2 delivery data, while analyst Gary Black — a longtime Tesla bull — expects a delivery beat but still refuses to own the stock.
The read · Jun 30
TSLA faces a binary Q2 delivery print with Burry short and Black expecting a beat but refusing ownership — the question is whether a delivery beat is enough to overcome YoY revenue contraction and margin pressure at current valuations.
Wrong if
A delivery beat above high-side estimates triggers a short squeeze — Burry's position becomes immediately painful and momentum buyers pile in; conversely, a miss with weak pricing commentary accelerates the bear thesis rapidly.
CoverageSource: TradingView · Published here TUE, JUN 30 · 9:17 PM ET · the only report in this recordHow this is decided →
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The story1 min read
Michael Burry, the Scion Asset Management founder famed for his 2008 mortgage short, has initiated a short position in Tesla, which he described as 'finally' doing so — implying he had been watching for an entry point. The timing is notable: Q2 2025 delivery numbers are imminent, a binary data point that often swings TSLA by double digits in either direction.
Gary Black, a former institutional Tesla bull and frequent commentator on the stock, says he models a Q2 delivery beat relative to consensus estimates — but crucially, still won't buy the stock. That combination of 'beat expectations, still won't own it' is a meaningful signal about the bull-bear tension in TSLA's current setup. Both Burry and Black, coming from opposite camps, are effectively expressing skepticism about the equity at current prices.
Tesla's fundamentals frame the difficulty: FY2025 revenue is running at $94.8B, down 2.9% year-over-year, gross margins sit at 18.0% — respectable but pressured by aggressive pricing — and net margins have compressed to 4.1%. Diluted EPS of $1.08 against a stock trading at a significant premium leaves the valuation highly sensitive to delivery trajectory and any guidance language around margins.
The bull case rests on a delivery beat triggering a momentum squeeze — TSLA has a historically large short interest and can run violently on positive surprises. The bear case is that even a beat may not resolve the deeper issues: revenue contraction YoY, margin compression, and no credible near-term catalyst to re-accelerate growth, which is exactly what Burry and Black's shared skepticism reflects.
Watchers should track the headline delivery number vs. the Street consensus, any color on pricing per vehicle (a margin proxy), and whether Musk offers forward guidance on new model timelines. A miss would validate the Burry short; a beat followed by a rally fade would validate Black's 'beat but don't own' framing.
The read, in fullWhy it matters
The story is genuinely two-sided and catalyst-dependent: Burry is short, but a delivery beat could trigger a violent short squeeze given TSLA's historically elevated short interest. Revenue is contracting YoY (-2.9%) and net margins have compressed to 4.1%, which grounds the bear case, but TSLA's reflexive volatility around delivery prints makes a directional pre-positioning call low-confidence without knowing the delivery number.
The arc● Open · no developments yet
· Published
The read above, as written. kept as written · closes shown from JUL 1 on
Next · what would move this
Into Q2 delivery print, likely 1-2 weeks. Follow to be told when one lands.
Since this story · named here, equal weight · 1D EOD-16.7%
JUL 1 · first close after publicationSEP 4
Price context does not establish that the story caused the move.
▲ The case it holds
If Q2 deliveries beat a consensus that has been reset lower, TSLA's large short interest creates a mechanical squeeze setup that has historically produced outsized upside moves regardless of underlying fundamentals.
▼ The case it breaks
With FY2025 revenue already down 2.9% YoY, net margins compressed to 4.1%, and even a dedicated bull like Gary Black unwilling to own the stock, any delivery beat may merely be a relief rally into structurally deteriorating unit economics.
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