Tesla TSLA

Nasdaq · Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies · $1.52T
$343.69−10.77%Nov 5 close · Databento
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TSLA Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing
Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $343.691D −10.77%3M +3.87%SMA20 $381.65SMA50 $372.07RSI(14) 35.8
343.69
RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 35.8

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

After a story on TSLA, the first close moved a median −1.71%. Up 6 of 19; over the next three trading days, a median +2.68%.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento
Market cap$1.52T
EV / True FCF445.6x
Revenue$94.8B −2.9%
True FCF (ex-SBC)$3.4B +73.7%
Rule of 403.7%
ROIC4.3%
True FCF Yield0.2%
EPS, diluted$1.08 −47.1%
Modern Valuation (EOD)
Market Cap$1.52T
Enterprise Value$1,513B
EV / True FCF445.65
EV / FCF243.24
EV / Gross Profit88.51
EV / EBIT347.41
EV / Sales15.96
P / E (GAAP)394.64
P / FCF244.59
P / Oper. CF103.16
P / Book18.37
Owner & Cash Yields
True FCF Yield0.2%
FCF Yield0.4%
Owner Earn. Yield-0.2%
Earnings Yield0.3%
Shareholder Yield—
Buyback Yield—
Dividend Yield—
Dividend / sh—
Payout Ratio—
FCF / sh$1.57
EPS (diluted)$1.08
Compounder & Returns
Rule of 403.7%
ROIC4.3%
Cash ROIC (CROIC)8.4%
GP / Assets12.4%
ROE4.7%
ROA2.8%
Gross Margin18.0%
Oper. Margin4.6%
Net Margin4.1%
FCF Margin6.6%
True FCF Margin3.6%
Quality & Dilution
Cash Conversion161%
Accrual Ratio−7.9%
SBC % of FCF45.4%
SBC % of Rev3.0%
Reinvest. Rate101%
Sales Growth Y/Y−2.9%
Sales 3Y CAGR+5.2%
EPS Growth Y/Y−47.1%
FCF Growth Y/Y+73.7%
FCF 3Y CAGR−6.3%
Share Change Y/Y+0.9%
Balance Sheet & Scale
Revenue (FY)$94.8B
Gross Profit (FY)$17.1B
Oper. Income (FY)$4.4B
GAAP Net Income$3.9B
True FCF (ex-SBC)$3.4B
Cash & Equiv$16.5B
Total Debt$8.2B
Net Cash (Debt)$8.4B
Net Cash % MCap+0.5%
Debt / FCF (yrs)1.3y
Current Ratio2.163.95B sh
Price & Technicals (EOD)
Perf Week−14.78%
Perf Month−9.03%
Perf Quarter+4.60%
Perf Half Y−16.54%
Perf YTD−12.44%
SMA 20 Dist−9.95%$381.65
SMA 50 Dist−7.63%$372.07
SMA 100 Dist−6.41%$367.25
Window High−22.81%$445.27
Window Low+15.21%$298.32
RSI (14) · Vol35.856%v
Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of TSLA revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow
REVENUE · 100%$94.8BGROSS PROFIT · 18.0%$17.1BCOST OF REV · 82.0%$77.7BOPER. INCOME · 4.6%$4.4BOPEX · 13.4%R&D $6.4B · SG&A $5.8BNET INCOME · 4.1%$3.9B
Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)
Cost of Revenue (COGS)$77.7B ($82.0 / $100)
R&D Reinvestment$6.4B ($6.8 / $100)
SG&A & Other OpEx$6.3B ($6.7 / $100)
Tax & Non-Operating$500.0M ($0.5 / $100)
Net Profit Kept$3.9B ($4.1 / $100)
Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)
GAAP Net Income$3.9B (4.1% margin)
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$14.7B(15.6% of rev)
Less: Capital Expenditures−$8.5B(9.0% of rev)
Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$6.2B(6.6% margin)
Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$2.8B(45.4% of FCF)
True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$3.4B(3.6% of rev)

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet
0%40%80%18%5%4%FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25
Unlocked SEC EDGAR Accounting Statements (USD)All 3 statements · Common-size (% of Revenue / Assets) · YoY growth · Tap any core row to explain
Line Item (USD)FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025YoY Δ4Y CAGRTrend
Income Statement
Cost of Revenue (COGS)$40.2B$60.6B$79.1B$80.2B$77.7B−3.1%+17.9%
Research & Development (R&D)$2.6B$3.1B$4.0B$4.5B$6.4B+41.2%+25.4%
Selling, General & Admin (SG&A)$4.5B$3.9B$4.8B$5.2B$5.8B+13.3%+6.6%
Total Operating Expenses$7.1B$7.2B$8.8B$10.4B$12.7B+22.8%+15.8%
Interest Expense$371.0M$191.0M$156.0M$350.0M$338.0M−3.4%−2.3%
Income Tax Expense$699.0M$1.1B$-5.0B$1.8B$1.4B−22.5%+19.4%
Diluted Shares3.39B3.48B3.48B3.50B3.53B+0.9%+1.0%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents$17.6B$16.3B$16.4B$16.1B$16.5B+2.3%−1.5%
Inventory$5.8B$12.8B$13.6B$12.0B$12.4B+3.1%+21.1%
Total Current Assets$27.1B$40.9B$49.6B$58.4B$68.6B+17.6%+26.2%
Total Assets$62.1B$82.3B$106.6B$122.1B$137.8B+12.9%+22.0%
Total Current Liabilities$19.7B$26.7B$28.7B$28.8B$31.7B+10.0%+12.6%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)$5.3B$2.0B$4.7B$7.9B$8.2B+3.5%+11.1%
Total Liabilities$30.5B$36.4B$43.0B$48.4B$54.9B+13.5%+15.8%
Stockholders' Equity$31.0B$45.5B$63.4B$73.6B$82.8B+12.5%+27.8%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)$12.2B$14.2B$11.7B$8.3B$8.4B+1.2%−9.1%
Invested Capital$18.8B$31.3B$51.6B$65.4B$74.4B+13.9%+41.1%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)$1.9B$2.4B$3.3B$4.1B$5.0B+22.1%+27.4%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)$2.1B$1.6B$1.8B$2.0B$2.8B+41.3%+7.4%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)$6.5B$7.2B$8.9B$11.3B$8.5B−24.8%+7.1%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)$2.9B$6.0B$2.5B$1.6B$3.4B+114.6%+4.1%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what TSLA did at the next close after each story
Nov 6next close pending
Nov 5next close pending
Oct 22—
Oct 22−3.08%
Oct 22−3.08%
Oct 20+3.41%
Oct 21−3.08%
Oct 21+3.41%
Oct 16−2.13%
Sep 24−1.54%

The record, by topic

last 90 days · stories · median first close
consumer10−1.92%
earnings3−0.87%
regulation2−0.97%
semis1−3.08%
crypto1+3.41%
energy1−1.54%
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