One Big Stock Market Sunday | AI Boom, Big Tech Earnings (AMD, PLTR) & Market Outlook Nick Foligno (9TTeXyMuXY)
AMD and Palantir are both riding the AI infrastructure wave with strong revenue growth — AMD at +34% YoY and PLTR at +56% YoY — but the two carry very different margin profiles and valuation stories. The question is whether AMD's hardware cycle and PLTR's software premium can both sustain their current re-rating, or whether one is more extended than the other.
What happened
AMD and Palantir are both riding the AI infrastructure wave with strong revenue growth — AMD at +34% YoY and PLTR at +56% YoY — but the two carry very different margin profiles and valuation stories.
The read · Jun 17
With AMD and PLTR both posting accelerating AI-driven revenue growth but sitting at very different margin profiles and valuation multiples, the question is which name offers a better risk/reward setup into the next earnings catalyst.
Wrong if
A PLTR government contract acceleration or AMD data center GPU share loss to Nvidia would break this pair in opposite directions; without current price-target and consensus data, sizing should remain tactical.
CoverageSource: Mshale · Published here WED, JUN 17 · 12:24 PM ET · the only report in this recordHow this is decided →
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The story1 min read
AMD posted FY2025 revenue of $34.6B (+34.3% YoY) with 49.5% gross margins and $2.65 diluted EPS, driven by data center GPU demand competing with Nvidia. Palantir delivered $4.5B in revenue (+56.2% YoY) with an exceptional 82.4% gross margin and $0.63 diluted EPS, reflecting its software-platform model and expanding U.S. commercial and government AI contracts. Both companies are material beneficiaries of the AI infrastructure buildout cycle.
The structural tension is that PLTR trades at a significant premium to software peers on a revenue multiple basis, while AMD remains in the shadow of Nvidia's dominance in AI accelerators — making the relative value and momentum case for each genuinely contested. Upcoming earnings prints and any guidance commentary on AI demand trajectory will be the key catalyst to watch for both names.
The read, in fullWhy it matters
PLTR's 82.4% gross margin and 56% revenue growth outpace AMD's hardware-cycle-dependent 49.5% gross margin and 34% growth, suggesting PLTR's software moat commands a durable premium; however, PLTR's valuation is already pricing in significant future growth, while AMD's lower multiple relative to its data center GPU ramp may offer more upside surprise potential. A pair framing — long AMD vs. short PLTR — exploits the valuation gap if the market rotates toward hardware during a capex cycle peak. The enrichment data does not include current consensus price targets or insider activity, limiting conviction on either leg.
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· Published
The read above, as written. kept as written · closes shown from JUN 17 on
Next · what would move this
4-6 weeks / into next earnings. Follow to be told when one lands.
▲ The case it holds
AMD's 34% revenue growth at a lower software-style multiple than PLTR, combined with expanding data center GPU traction, suggests the market may be underpricing AMD's AI hardware earnings power relative to Palantir's software premium.
▼ The case it breaks
PLTR's 82.4% gross margin, 56% revenue growth, and sticky government-plus-commercial AI platform give it a durable multiple premium that AMD's more commoditized hardware cycle cannot easily replicate, making a valuation compression thesis on PLTR difficult to time.
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