AMD Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing
Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $404.401D −17.26%3M −13.88%SMA20 $535.25SMA50 $547.37RSI(14) 29.7
Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.
After a story on AMD, the first close moved a median +1.01%. Up 7 of 10; over the next three trading days, a median +2.14%.
The numbers
fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento
Market cap$797.9B
EV / True FCF156.1x
Revenue$34.6B +34.3%
True FCF (ex-SBC)$5.1B +180.0%
Rule of 4053.7%
ROIC5.4%
True FCF Yield0.6%
EPS, diluted$2.65 +165.0%
Modern Valuation (EOD)
Market Cap$797.9B
Enterprise Value$795.6B
EV / True FCF156.09
EV / FCF118.13
EV / Gross Profit46.38
EV / EBIT215.37
EV / Sales22.97
P / E (GAAP)184.06
P / FCF118.47
P / Oper. CF103.51
P / Book12.67
Owner & Cash Yields
True FCF Yield0.6%
FCF Yield0.8%
Owner Earn. Yield0.3%
Earnings Yield0.5%
Shareholder Yield0.0%
Buyback Yield0.2%
Dividend Yield—
Dividend / sh—
Payout Ratio—
FCF / sh$4.11
EPS (diluted)$2.65
Compounder & Returns
Rule of 4053.7%
ROIC5.4%
Cash ROIC (CROIC)11.1%
GP / Assets22.3%
ROE6.9%
ROA5.6%
Gross Margin49.5%
Oper. Margin10.7%
Net Margin12.5%
FCF Margin19.4%
True FCF Margin14.7%
Quality & Dilution
Cash Conversion155%
Accrual Ratio−4.4%
SBC % of FCF24.3%
SBC % of Rev4.7%
Reinvest. Rate118%
Sales Growth Y/Y+34.3%
Sales 3Y CAGR+13.6%
EPS Growth Y/Y+165.0%
FCF Growth Y/Y+180.0%
FCF 3Y CAGR+29.3%
Share Change Y/Y−0.1%
Balance Sheet & Scale
Revenue (FY)$34.6B
Gross Profit (FY)$17.2B
Oper. Income (FY)$3.7B
GAAP Net Income$4.3B
True FCF (ex-SBC)$5.1B
Cash & Equiv$5.6B
Total Debt$3.2B
Net Cash (Debt)$2.3B
Net Cash % MCap+0.3%
Debt / FCF (yrs)0.5y
Current Ratio2.851.64B sh
Price & Technicals (EOD)
Perf Week−28.60%
Perf Month−37.39%
Perf Quarter−16.34%
Perf Half Y−0.99%
Perf YTD+47.08%
SMA 20 Dist−24.45%$535.25
SMA 50 Dist−26.12%$547.37
SMA 100 Dist−23.34%$527.50
Window High−37.73%$649.42
Window Low+47.08%$274.95
RSI (14) · Vol29.797%v
Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of AMD revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow
Unlocked SEC EDGAR Accounting Statements (USD)All 3 statements · Common-size (% of Revenue / Assets) · YoY growth · Tap any core row to explain
Line Item (USD)
FY2021
FY2022
FY2023
FY2024
FY2025
YoY Δ
4Y CAGR
Trend
Income Statement
Revenue ▸
$16.4B
$23.6B
$22.7B
$25.8B
$34.6B
+34.3%
+20.5%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)
$8.5B
$13.0B
$12.2B
$13.1B
$17.5B
+33.9%
+19.7%
Gross Profit ▸
$7.9B
$10.6B
$10.5B
$12.7B
$17.2B
+34.8%
+21.3%
Research & Development (R&D)
$2.8B
$5.0B
$5.9B
$6.5B
$8.1B
+25.3%
+29.9%
Selling, General & Admin (SG&A)
$1.4B
$2.3B
$2.3B
$2.7B
$4.1B
+51.5%
+30.1%
Total Operating Expenses
$4.3B
$9.3B
$10.1B
$10.8B
$13.5B
+24.3%
+33.2%
Operating Income (EBIT) ▸
$3.6B
$1.3B
$401.0M
$1.9B
$3.7B
+94.4%
+0.3%
Interest Expense
$34.0M
$88.0M
$106.0M
$92.0M
$131.0M
+42.4%
+40.1%
Income Tax Expense
$513.0M
$-122.0M
$-346.0M
$381.0M
$-103.0M
−127.0%
—
GAAP Net Income ▸
$3.2B
$1.3B
$854.0M
$1.6B
$4.3B
+164.2%
+8.2%
Diluted EPS ▸
$2.57
$0.84
$0.53
$1.00
$2.65
+165.0%
+0.8%
Diluted Shares
1.23B
1.57B
1.63B
1.64B
1.64B
−0.1%
+7.4%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents
$2.5B
$4.8B
$3.9B
$3.8B
$5.6B
+45.8%
+21.7%
Inventory
$2.0B
$3.8B
$4.4B
$5.7B
$7.9B
+38.1%
+41.9%
Total Current Assets
$8.6B
$15.0B
$16.8B
$19.0B
$26.9B
+41.5%
+33.1%
Total Assets
$12.4B
$67.6B
$67.9B
$69.2B
$76.9B
+11.1%
+57.8%
Total Current Liabilities
$4.2B
$6.4B
$6.7B
$7.3B
$9.5B
+29.9%
+22.2%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)
$1.0M
$2.5B
$2.5B
$1.7B
$3.2B
+87.2%
+653.4%
Stockholders' Equity
$7.5B
$54.8B
$55.9B
$57.6B
$63.0B
+9.4%
+70.3%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)
$2.5B
$2.4B
$1.5B
$2.1B
$2.3B
+11.7%
−2.0%
Invested Capital
$5.0B
$52.4B
$54.4B
$55.5B
$60.7B
+9.3%
+87.0%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF) ▸
$3.5B
$3.6B
$1.7B
$3.0B
$7.7B
+153.5%
+21.6%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)
$296.0M
$439.0M
$441.0M
$454.0M
$521.0M
+14.8%
+15.2%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)
$379.0M
$1.1B
$1.4B
$1.4B
$1.6B
+16.4%
+44.2%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)
$301.0M
$450.0M
$546.0M
$636.0M
$974.0M
+53.1%
+34.1%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) ▸
$3.2B
$3.1B
$1.1B
$2.4B
$6.7B
+180.0%
+20.3%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)
$2.8B
$2.0B
$-263.0M
$998.0M
$5.1B
+410.7%
+15.7%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)
$1.8B
$3.7B
$985.0M
$862.0M
$1.3B
+52.7%
−7.0%
Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.
The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.
What happened · big days
23 big days in a year, and what we hold on each
A big day is a close more than 7.43% from the one before, three times AMD’s median day (2.48%). On 9 of the 23, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.
every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±7.43%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.
Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.
#DayAMDWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each
1 Nov 12, 2025+9.00%
Before our storiesgroup +0.6%, did not move with it
1Nov 12, 2025+9.00%
Before our stories
+0.6% did not move with itMU +1.6 · AVGO +0.9 · NVDA +0.3 · INTC +0.0
2 Nov 20, 2025−7.84%
Before our storiesgroup −3.7%, did not move with it
2Nov 20, 2025−7.84%
Before our stories
−3.7% did not move with itMU −10.9 · INTC −4.2 · NVDA −3.1 · AVGO −2.1
3 Jan 21, 2026+7.71%
Before our storiesgroup +4.8%, moved with AMD
3Jan 21, 2026+7.71%
Before our stories
+4.8% moved with AMDINTC +11.7 · MU +6.6 · NVDA +3.0 · AVGO −1.1
4 Feb 4, 2026−17.31%
Resultsgroup −3.6%, did not move with it
4Feb 4, 2026−17.31%
ResultsFirst close after the Feb 3 results filing
−3.6% did not move with itMU −9.6 · AVGO −3.8 · NVDA −3.4 · INTC −1.3
5 Feb 6, 2026+8.28%
Before our storiesgroup +6.0%, moved with AMD
5Feb 6, 2026+8.28%
Before our stories
+6.0% moved with AMDNVDA +7.9 · AVGO +7.2 · INTC +4.9 · MU +3.1
6 Feb 24, 2026+8.77%
Before our storiesgroup −0.0%, did not move with it
6Feb 24, 2026+8.77%
Before our stories
−0.0% did not move with itINTC +5.7 · NVDA +0.7 · MU −0.7 · AVGO −1.5
7 Mar 26, 2026−7.49%
Before our storiesgroup −5.3%, moved with AMD
7Mar 26, 2026−7.49%
Before our stories
−5.3% moved with AMDMU −7.0 · INTC −6.5 · NVDA −4.2 · AVGO −3.0
8 Apr 16, 2026+7.80%
Before our storiesgroup +0.3%, did not move with it
8Apr 16, 2026+7.80%
Before our stories
+0.3% did not move with itINTC +5.5 · AVGO +0.4 · MU +0.2 · NVDA −0.3
9 Apr 24, 2026+13.91%
Before our storiesgroup +3.7%, did not move with it
9Apr 24, 2026+13.91%
Before our stories
+3.7% did not move with itINTC +23.6 · NVDA +4.3 · MU +3.1 · AVGO +0.7
10 May 6, 2026+18.61%
Resultsgroup +4.3%, did not move with it
10May 6, 2026+18.61%
ResultsFirst close after the May 5 results filing
+4.3% did not move with itNVDA +5.8 · INTC +4.5 · MU +4.1 · AVGO −0.5
11 May 8, 2026+11.44%
Before our storiesgroup +9.1%, moved with AMD
11May 8, 2026+11.44%
Before our stories
+9.1% moved with AMDMU +15.5 · INTC +14.0 · AVGO +4.2 · NVDA +1.8
12 May 20, 2026+8.10%
Before our storiesgroup +3.2%, did not move with it
12May 20, 2026+8.10%
Before our stories
+3.2% did not move with itINTC +7.4 · MU +4.8 · AVGO +1.6 · NVDA +1.3
13 May 26, 2026+7.78%
Before our storiesgroup +2.5%, did not move with it
13May 26, 2026+7.78%
Before our stories
+2.5% did not move with itMU +19.3 · INTC +3.1 · AVGO +1.9 · NVDA −0.2
14 Jun 5, 2026−10.86%
Before our storiesgroup −9.6%, moved with AMD
14Jun 5, 2026−10.86%
Before our stories
−9.6% moved with AMDMU −13.3 · INTC −11.3 · AVGO −7.9 · NVDA −6.2
15 Jun 11, 2026+7.97%
Nothing on AMDgroup +6.5%, moved with AMD
15Jun 11, 2026+7.97%
Nothing on AMDNo AMD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+6.5% moved with AMDMU +11.7 · INTC +9.3 · AVGO +3.6 · NVDA +2.2
16 Jun 30, 2026+7.68%
Nothing on AMDgroup +2.0%, did not move with it
16Jun 30, 2026+7.68%
Nothing on AMDNo AMD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.0% did not move with itINTC +6.0 · NVDA +2.6 · AVGO +1.4 · MU +0.8
17 Jul 21, 2026+8.11%
Nothing on AMDgroup +5.4%, moved with AMD
17Jul 21, 2026+8.11%
Nothing on AMDNo AMD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+5.4% moved with AMDMU +12.2 · INTC +8.6 · AVGO +2.2 · NVDA +2.0
18 Jul 28, 2026−8.15%
Nothing on AMDgroup −3.2%, did not move with it
18Jul 28, 2026−8.15%
Nothing on AMDNo AMD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−3.2% did not move with itMU −8.8 · INTC −5.9 · AVGO −0.6 · NVDA +0.3
19 Jul 30, 2026+13.00%
Nothing on AMDgroup +8.0%, moved with AMD
19Jul 30, 2026+13.00%
Nothing on AMDNo AMD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+8.0% moved with AMDMU +18.4 · INTC +11.3 · AVGO +4.7 · NVDA +2.6
+2.5% did not move with itINTC +12.1 · MU +2.8 · NVDA +2.3 · AVGO +1.4
21 Oct 22, 2026−8.10%
Nothing on AMDgroup −5.3%, moved with AMD
21Oct 22, 2026−8.10%
Nothing on AMDNo AMD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−5.3% moved with AMDINTC −8.0 · MU −6.3 · NVDA −4.4 · AVGO −4.3
22 Oct 30, 2026−10.88%
Nothing on AMDgroup −5.4%, did not move with it
22Oct 30, 2026−10.88%
Nothing on AMDNo AMD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−5.4% did not move with itINTC −28.6 · AVGO −5.5 · MU −5.3 · NVDA −4.2
23 Nov 2, 2026−7.52%
Nothing on AMDgroup −3.5%, did not move with it
23Nov 2, 2026−7.52%
Nothing on AMDNo AMD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−3.5% did not move with itINTC −8.8 · MU −5.8 · NVDA −1.3 · AVGO −1.2
A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of NVDA, AVGO, MU and INTC that day, the largest companies in AMD’s SEC industry; “moved with AMD” means the same direction and at least half the size.
What’s next · results
Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did
Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). AMD reports after the close, so day 1 is the next close. Each time, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.
Reported Nov 4, 2025
day 1+2.51%day 6+3.54%
Reported Feb 3, 2026
day 1−17.31%day 6−11.78%
Reported May 5, 2026
day 1+18.61%day 6+25.40%
Reported Aug 4, 2026
day 1−7.04%day 6−6.87%
Next report: expected early FebruaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Nov 3 report: +1.01%. Four reports is a small sample.
Each line is AMD’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.
Same industry
AMD against four chip peers, a year at 100
AMD is up 2.1 times in a year. Micron is up 3.3 times. Of these four, Intel (+52.8%), NVIDIA (+6.4%) and Broadcom (−6.8%) did less. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale so a 3.3-fold rise and a 6.8% fall both read honestly.
End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in AMD’s SEC industry (Semiconductors & Related Devices) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.