September Fed interest-rate increase is 'very unlikely,' Goldman Sachs says
Goldman Sachs says a September Federal Reserve interest-rate increase is “very unlikely” after soft economic data. The dovish shift supports bitcoin’s risk-asset setup.
File photo · The Federal Reserve’s Eccles Building, Washington · Mar 2011 · Federal Reserve · Public domain · Source & licenseGoldman Sachs has lowered its expectation for a September Federal Reserve rate increase, describing such a move as "very unlikely." The view follows softer economic data.
The direct link is to bitcoin and other rate-sensitive risk assets: a less hawkish path can reduce pressure from tighter financial conditions and support demand for speculative assets.
The next relevant evidence will be incoming economic data and Federal Reserve communication ahead of the September meeting. The policy signal remains directional rather than fully quantified.
The Goldman call eases near-term rate pressure on bitcoin, but without a quantified policy shift the macro catalyst remains too thin for a single-name equity read.
The immediate implication is a somewhat friendlier liquidity backdrop for bitcoin, but the evidence stops at Goldman’s assessment that a September increase is “very unlikely.” With no quantified probability, no company-specific exposure and no ticker enrichment, the setup supports monitoring the macro catalyst rather than a defined single-name trade.
A renewed run of strong economic data or more hawkish Federal Reserve communication could restore expectations for a September increase.
CoverageSource: CoinDesk · Published here TUE, AUG 18 · 8:17 PM ET · 4 reports · 3 publishers in this record · latest listed: Business Insider · MON, AUG 17 · 3:34 PM ET (reaction)How this is decided →
- Yahoo Finance — Goldman Sachs: September Fed rate hike very unlikely as inflation slows
- Yahoo! Finance Canada — What hike? Why Wall Street is abandoning its call for higher rates.
- Business Insider — What hike? Why Wall Street is abandoning its call for higher rates.
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Goldman Sachs’ “very unlikely” assessment, tied to soft economic data, removes some near-term rate pressure from bitcoin and other risk assets.
The bearish case is that the report does not signal a rate cut or provide a quantified policy change, leaving the market exposed to a reversal in economic data or Fed guidance.
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