TSMC, ASML Kick Off Semiconductor Earnings; Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan In Financial Parade
What happened
TSMC and ASML are kicking off semiconductor earnings season, with TSMC already posting FY2024 revenue of $2.9T TWD (+33.9% YoY) alongside a robust 56.1% gross margin and $44.67 diluted EPS. The prints set the tone for the broader semis complex heading into financial sector earnings from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan.
The read · Jul 10
With TSMC printing 33.9% revenue growth and 56.1% gross margins, the question is whether Q1 2025 guidance confirms the AI-driven supercycle is intact or signals a peak-growth inflection that pressures TSM and ASML multiples.
Wrong if
A Q1 2025 revenue guide that misses consensus — or cautious CoWoS/advanced packaging capacity commentary — would signal peak growth and likely trigger a sharp de-rating given TSM's elevated forward multiple; ASML soft orders would compound the move.
CoverageSource: Yahoo Finance · Published here FRI, JUL 10 · 1:19 PM ET · the only report in this recordHow this is decided →
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The story1 min read
TSMC has reported FY2024 results showing revenue of approximately $2.9 trillion TWD, a 33.9% year-over-year surge driven by relentless AI accelerator and advanced node demand. Gross margins came in at 56.1% with net margins at 40.0%, and diluted EPS of $44.67 — numbers that firmly validate the AI capex supercycle narrative that has underpinned the stock's re-rating over the past 18 months.
The earnings kickoff matters beyond TSMC itself: as the world's dominant advanced-node foundry, TSMC's revenue trajectory is a real-time read on demand from Nvidia, Apple, AMD, and Broadcom — the four largest customers collectively driving a significant portion of advanced-node utilization. ASML's print alongside it will confirm or challenge the equipment spending outlook, touching the broader semis supply chain.
The bull tension here is straightforward — if TSMC guides Q1 2025 revenue in line with or above consensus, it reaffirms that AI infrastructure spending has not hit a wall, and the stock's premium multiple is arguably still underpinned. The bear case centers on whether the 33.9% growth rate is the peak of the cycle and whether a guidance disappointment or softening CoWoS/HBM commentary triggers a multiple compression event.
Key items to watch in the earnings call: Q1 2025 revenue guidance range, CoWoS advanced packaging capacity commentary, and any color on customer inventory normalization in smartphone vs. AI segments. ASML's order book will be the secondary signal — a soft orders print would amplify concerns about capex digestion into 2025.
The read, in fullWhy it matters
TSMC's FY2024 print — 33.9% revenue growth, 56.1% gross margins, $44.67 EPS — is a genuinely strong fundamental backdrop; if Q1 guidance meets or beats consensus, the stock has a clear path to re-test prior highs as AI capex narratives remain intact. The enrichment shows no margin deterioration, suggesting pricing power in advanced nodes is holding. The trade is a near-term earnings momentum play contingent on guidance, not a valuation call.
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▲ The case it holds
TSMC's FY2024 gross margin of 56.1% and 33.9% revenue growth, if paired with in-line or above-consensus Q1 guidance, would confirm that advanced-node pricing power and AI demand remain structurally intact, supporting the current multiple.
▼ The case it breaks
At 33.9% YoY revenue growth, TSMC may already be at a cyclical peak — any Q1 guidance that shows deceleration or margin pressure from N2 ramp costs could trigger a meaningful multiple compression given the stock's premium valuation relative to historical foundry peers.
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This page is kept as it was written on Jul 10. Later coverage joins it only when the company and catalyst evidence match, and what the stock did is shown from licensed end-of-day closes — never re-graded, never backdated. The judgment is yours.