Federal investigators have opened an inquiry into a fatal Tesla crash in Texas where the driver claimed the vehicle was operating in 'self-driving' mode when it accelerated into a home, killing a resident. The case adds to a long-running NHTSA docket on Tesla's Full Self-Driving and Autopilot systems and arrives as Tesla's FY2025 revenue has already declined 2.9% year-over-year to $94.8B, with gross margins compressed to 18% and net margins at just 4.1%.

The second-order risk is regulatory: a high-profile federal investigation can accelerate recall demands, force software feature restrictions, or complicate Tesla's planned robotaxi rollout — all of which are priced into the bull thesis. Watch for NHTSA statements, Congressional commentary, and any Tesla response on FSD scope; escalation toward a formal recall or software mandate would be the key catalyst to monitor.