Lam Research (LRCX): BofA Raises Its Target by $150 as Chip Equipment Spending Heads Toward $250 Billion

Bank of America raised its price target on Lam Research (LRCX) by $150, framing the move around a broader wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) spending cycle that BofA now sees approaching $250 billion. Lam is one of the largest pure-play beneficiaries of that cycle, with dominant positions in etch and deposition — the process steps that scale directly with NAND, DRAM, and leading-edge logic investment.

The underlying fundamentals support the bullish framing. Lam's most recent fiscal year (ending June 2025) showed revenue of $18.4 billion, up nearly 24% YoY, with gross margins holding at 48.7% and net margins at 29.1%. EPS came in at $4.15 diluted — a solid base for a company still in a spending upcycle.

The second-order question is whether the BofA target raise is leading or lagging the trade. WFE spending growth is well-telegraphed at this point, and LRCX has already moved significantly off its lows. If the $250B WFE estimate proves conservative — driven by AI-adjacent memory and advanced packaging capex — there's another leg higher. But if memory customers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) slow capex guidance or China export controls tighten further, the bull thesis compresses quickly.

Key variables to watch: NAND recovery pace, any incremental China export restriction language from Commerce, and whether Lam's next earnings print sustains the 23%+ revenue growth trajectory. The BofA raise is a sentiment tailwind, but the real test is whether the fundamental cycle extends into 2026 as projected.