Aluminum Supply Crisis Is About To Get Worse
1 min readAnalysis by AlgoThesis Editorial Desk
The story
Aluminum prices in London have surged ~17% since the U.S.-Iran conflict began, with major commodity desks (Mercuria, Goldman, JPMorgan) flagging a significant supply shock driven by Middle East smelter outages, Hormuz disruption, and potential Chinese output curtailments from energy/emissions inspections. The double supply shock — geopolitical and regulatory — sets up a sustained squeeze in aluminum prices and outsized moves in upstream producers and downstream consumers with aluminum cost exposure.
The two-sided take
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The house read
Wrong ifA rapid diplomatic de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran or a reversal of Chinese curtailment policy would collapse the supply-shock thesis quickly; Chinese demand weakness (property sector) is already a structural headwind that could overwhelm supply-side tightening; the 17% move may already be largely priced in to producer equities.
Published read · research, not advice