Aluminum prices in London have surged ~17% since the U.S.-Iran conflict began, with major commodity desks (Mercuria, Goldman, JPMorgan) flagging a significant supply shock driven by Middle East smelter outages, Hormuz disruption, and potential Chinese output curtailments from energy/emissions inspections. The double supply shock — geopolitical and regulatory — sets up a sustained squeeze in aluminum prices and outsized moves in upstream producers and downstream consumers with aluminum cost exposure.