Pakistan announced it facilitated a deal between the US and Iran that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil passes. President Trump confirmed the agreement, triggering an immediate slide in oil prices as traders began unwinding geopolitical risk premium built up during the standoff. The scale of the move will depend on deal durability and enforcement — Iran-US agreements have a poor track record of holding.

The immediate setup is bearish for crude and energy producers, with integrated majors and pure-play E&Ps most exposed to a sustained price decline. The key watch items are (1) whether Iran formally ratifies the arrangement, (2) how quickly tanker traffic resumes through the Strait, and (3) OPEC+ response to any demand-supply imbalance. A breakdown in the deal would reverse the move sharply.